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Recent Blog Entries

'Double or Quits' Has Never Been an Advisable Trading Strategy
The UK government has announced a second wave of support for the banking sector. In our view this is a path which should only be followed if there is a clear accompanying intent to resolve some of the underlying structural issues in the financial system. ...
Has The Bail-Out of the UK Banks Worked ?
Following last month's bail-out of the UK banking system, things are not looking good - and some commentators are already saying that these measures have failed. A few have even claimed that current events herald the end of the capitalist system. The ...
The Risks are Now So Severe that Market Psychology is the Key
The risks in the financial markets are now so large that government money on its own cannot necessarily resolve them by brute force alone - the key is to manage, and even take advantage of, the psychology of the market. In order to achieve this, we ...
Could the Fall of Lehman Brothers Unleash 'The Risk Soliton'
The author has previously argued that the complexity of modern financial markets, together with the methods used to try to manage risk, could have created a systemically unstable structure; partly through a tangled web of complex credit derivatives. A ...
Georgia - Should this be a Wake-Up Call for Some Proper Strategic Risk Analysis ?
The conflict currently underway in Georgia should act as a wake-up call to remind us what NATO is really about. As current events unfold we should do a sober strategic risk analysis. If poor decisions are made now, the ground could be set for a serious ...
Would Anyone Like Some Free Energy ?
While we have all been concentrating on the problems in the financial markets - some other problems that we should be worried about in the energy markets have been unfolding in the background. Addressing these issues requires long-term strategic ...
Exercising the 'Traders Option'
As current events in the financial markets unfold, there has been some criticism of the levels of remuneration paid to senior bankers and other financiers. There is a common perception of a significant imbalance between risk and reward. Some of these ...
Should Banks be Able to Use Mortgage Debt To Raise Finances From Government?
Today's morning news highlighted some further developments in the current catalogue of economic woes: Firstly, a meeting with 'the banks' at No 10. Secondly the reporting of a 'widespread' fall in house prices. To quote 'Private Eye': are they by any ...
The Irony of 'Moral Hazard'
Under the present circumstances the issue of 'Moral Hazard', which was recently raised by the Governor of the Bank of England, is a much more important issue than some people have realized. If financial institutions are not allowed to fail then poor ...
The Problem With Using Credit Grades To Quantify Portfolio Credit Risk
We look at some of the issues around doing quantitative credit risk analysis based on credit 'grades', and why doing this properly is not as straightforward as it might seem. Some of the blame for the present credit crisis has been levelled at the ...
We Don't Have Earthquakes In Britain
In our opinion there are parallels to be drawn, and lessons to be learnt, from the economic troubles in Japan in the quite recent past. These problems arose partly because of a bubble in property prices and problems in the banking system. The trigger ...
A Risk Manager Called 'Cassandra'
Recent events appear to suggest that risk management in some financial institutions has, to put it mildly, left something to be desired - so where were all the risk managers ? Cassandra was a prophetess in ancient Troy who correctly foresaw disaster. ...
The Risk Implications of Complex Credit Markets
We consider whether an increasingly complex and inter-connected financial system is necessarily a safer one, as some have claimed. We conclude that it is not, in fact the reverse is true. This is in large part because of the way that the credit ...
The Escalating Cost of Some Computer Systems
There have recently been numerous reports of escalating costs of some computer systems projects. In the author's experience, behind almost every failed systems project there is a particular type of consultant with an impressive Powerpoint presentation. ...
Important Subtleties in Modelling Risk-Appetite and Economic Capital
As the world's banking and financial systems start to become stressed - there is sometimes a temptation to blame some of the risk models that are used by the banks. In the author's view these models are useful tools, but, particularly for credit risk, ...
Complex Credit Derivatives Should Give Us Great Cause For Concern
As the market in credit related products, including complex credit derivatives, continues to expand; there are some import lessons from previous mistakes which do not seem to have been taken on board. If some of the failures of the past are repeated ...

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The Escalating Cost of Some Computer Systems

Why Thomas Moore should have been in Systems Procurement

There have recently been numerous reports of escalating costs of some computer systems projects. In the author's experience, behind almost every failed systems project there is a particular type of consultant with an impressive Powerpoint presentation.

In considering 'Project Risk', and understanding why these projects so often go wrong, a telling quote from Thomas Moore comes to mind.

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