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This RCRT weblog is about risk, risk management and related issues.

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Recent Blog Entries

The Risks are Now So Huge that Market Psychology is the Key
We have previously argued that the world's financial system was becoming systemically unstable. As events unfold, many of these concerns are now being borne out. The risks are now so huge that government money on its own cannot necessarily resolve them by ...
Could the Fall of Lehman Brothers Unleash 'The Risk Soliton'
The author has previously argued that the complexity of modern financial markets, taken together with some of the methods used to try to manage risk could actually lead to a systemically unstable financial system. The author has previously termed what ...
Georgia - Should this be a Wake-Up Call for Some Proper Strategic Risk Analysis ?
The conflict underway in Georgia should act as a wake-up call to remind us what NATO is really about. As current events unfold we should do a sober risk analysis. If poor decisions are made, we might lay the ground for a serious future conflict, or ...
Would Anyone Like Some Free Energy ?
While we have all been concentrating on the problems in the credit markets - perhaps the problems that we should really be worried about have been unfolding in the background in the energy markets. Addressing these issues requires long-term strategic ...
Exercising the 'Traders Option'
As current events in the financial markets unfold, there has been some criticism of the levels of remuneration paid to senior bankers and other financiers. There is a common perception of a significant imbalance between risk and reward. One answer is ...
Should Banks be Able to Use Mortgage Debt To Raise Finances From Government?
This morning's news highlighted some further developments in the current catalogue of economic woes.Read more...
The Irony of 'Moral Hazard'
Why 'Moral Hazard' is a more important issue than some people have realized.Read more...
The Problem With Using Credit Grades To Quantify Portfolio Credit Risk
We look at some of the issues around doing quantitative risk analysis based on credit grades.Read more...
We Don't Have Earthquakes In Britain
In our opinion there are important lessons to be learnt from recent history in Japan.Read more...
A Risk Manager Called 'Cassandra'
Recent events appear to suggest that risk management in some financial institutions has left something to be desired - so where were the risk managers?Read more...
The Risk Implications of Complex Markets
We consider whether an increasingly complex and inter-connected financial system is necessarily a safer one.Read more...
The Escalating Cost of Some Computer Systems
When looking at the reported escalating costs of some computer systems, a quote from Thomas Moore comes to mind.Read more...
Important Subtleties in Modelling Risk-Appetite and Economic Capital
As the world's banking and financial systems start to become stressed - there is often a temptation to blame some of the risk models that are used by the banks. In the author's view these models often do have significant shortcomings, and we outline some ...

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We Don't Have Earthquakes In Britain

A Financial Lesson that we Should have Learn from Japan

In our opinion there are important lessons to be learnt from recent history in Japan.

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